11/18
WASHINGTON—Congress’ s nonpartisan scorekeeper said it would complete its analysis of Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package on Thursday, opening the door to the House approving the bill as soon as this evening.
The expected estimates from the Congressional Budget Office have been central to Democrats’ efforts to pass the legislation in the House. A group of five moderate Democrats blocked a previous effort to vote on the bill, demanding that they receive more information from CBO ahead of the vote.
The five Democrats have wanted to verify that the independent CBO analysis largely conforms with White House estimates of the bill’s revenue and spending measures. Biden administration officials have said that their estimate for revenue generated by enhanced tax enforcement at the Internal Revenue Service will likely be above CBO’s analysis.
While the White House has said pouring $80 billion into the IRS would net $400 billion in revenue, CBO has previously estimated that such an investment would net $120 billion. Some budget experts expect the CBO analysis of the most recent House proposal will find the IRS measure generating $150 billion in net revenue.
Several of the five critical Democrats have said they expect and accept that CBO will find the IRS provision generating less revenue than the White House has advertised.
“It’s about being in line with our expectations, and that’s been part of our expectations,” said Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D., N.J.), one of the five.
The major investment at IRS is just one of the elements of the sprawling social-policy package, which also funds a universal prekindergarten program, child care and healthcare subsidies and a series of tax incentives for reducing carbon emissions. The legislation also raises taxes on corporations and very high-income America
House set to vote on 2 Biden spending bills
The CBO analysis isn’t the only hurdle the legislation must clear before it can pass the House.
Democrats are pursuing a delicate legislative process called reconciliation to pass the bill without any Republican support in the 50-50 Senate, which typically necessitates 60 votes to advance to legislation. As part of reconciliation, Democrats are combing through the House bill for any possible technical issues and are preparing to amend the legislation again before bringing it to the floor.
The House would also have to take a procedural vote before taking up the actual legislation.
“We will vote on the rule and then on the bill, those votes hopefully will take place later this afternoon,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said on Thursday.
Democrats in the Senate are preparing to alter the legislation, eyeing removing the bill’s paid leave plan and changing its treatment of the state and local tax deduction. That means the bill will likely have to return to the House for another vote before it becomes law.
Biden administration officials have argued that CBO’s analysis of the IRS enforcement measure doesn’t properly take into account how more robust enforcement will prod more taxpayers to properly file their taxes in the first place. Other outside experts have agreed.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and former IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti said Thursday that CBO’s estimates are too conservative and don’t incorporate a large-enough effect of deterrence.
Mr. Rossotti said the gap between taxes owed and taxes collected largely stems from people who aren’t reporting all their income or filing returns.
“People are getting away with it simply because nobody has been looking,” Mr. Rossotti said.
Write to Andrew Duehren at
andrew.duehren@wsj.c om